Goblin Gamblin’ Game - Mathematical Calculations
June 27th, 2007 by rosehebe
EDIT::It’s been a while since
there’s been a post, but I’d like to point out that my calculations are
(apparently) wrong, read down a few posts for the actual ways to do it :smileywink:::EDIT::
All written out for people to see how I got my answers :smileywink:
Key: p = platinum, g = gold, s = silver, c = copper
Odds of Winning
6 match = 36/6 * 35/5 * 34/4 * 33/3 * 32/2 * 31/1 = 6*7 *8.5*11*16*31 = 1,947,792 to 1
5 match = 36/6 * 35/5 * 34/4 * 33/3 * 32/2 = 62,832 to 1
4 match = 36/6 * 35/5 * 34/4 * 33/3 = 3,927 to 1
3 match = 36/6 * 35/5 * 34/4 = 357 to 1
2 match = 36/6 * 35/5 = 42 to 1
1 match = 36/6 = 6 to 1
Approx. Cost per Win (Correct me if I’m wrong here)
6 = 1,947,792 to 1 = 19,477,920s = 194,779.2g = 1947.792pp to [?]
5 = 62,832 to 1 = 628,320s = 6,283.2g = 62.83pp to 25g (0.25 plat)
4 = 3,927 to 1 = 39,270s = 392.7g = 3.927pp to 2.5g (0.025 plat)
3 = 357 to 1 = 3570s = 35.7g = .357pp to 50s (0.005 plat)
2 = 42 to 1 = 420s = 4.2g = .042pp to 10s (0.001 plat)
Almost
2,000 platinum to win the jackpot… almost 63 platinum to win 25 gold,
almost 4 platinum to win 2.5 gold, 35.7 gold to win 50 silver, and 4.2
gold to win 10 silver.
I can understand having the odds against you, but honestly? Well, let’s see if it’s as bad as it seems….
# of Wins & Total Won/Lost in 2,000,000 Games
Cost of 2,000,000 Games = 20,000,000s = 200,000g = 2,000pp
6 = 1.03 = 1wins = [Jackpot]
5 = 31.8 = 32wins * 0.25p = 8pp
4 = 509.3 = 509wins * 0.025p = 12.725pp
3 = 5602.24 = 5602wins * 0.005p = 28.01pp
2 = 47,619.05 = 47,619wins * 0.001p = 47.619pp
Misc. Calculations
Winnings/2,000,000 games = [Jackpot]+8+12.725+28.01+47.619 = 96.354p + [Jackpot]
Required Jackpot to break Even = 2,000 - 96.354 = 1,903.646p
Overall:
this game is a waste of time. There’s a fine line between “game
designed to take money out of the economy” and “game designed to be so
rigged against you that nobody will play (and therefore will not affect
the economy much).
Note: Try to keep this discussion on the topic of the math behind the game
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